General Elections in Italy and Germany May Influence the Political Situation in Bulgaria
Yuriy Aslanov, sociologist
Sofia, Jan 12) - Whether or not Bulgaria will have a coalition government after the general elections in July 2013 is very hard to predict, as it will depend on talks between the political formations and politicians alike.
The social moods in the country are very dynamic. We can assume with quite a certainty that three political parties – Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) - will be represented in the next parliament.
Meglena Kouneva's formation, Political Movement Bulgaria of Its Citizens, stands about eighty-percent chance of winning seats in the next Bulgarian Parliament.
The ultra-nationalists from ATAKA political party stand a chance of passing the parliamentary representation threshold if they form a coalition with the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization (IMRO).
Ivan Kostov's political party Democrats for Strong Bulgaria may form a coalition with some dissidents of the Union of the Democratic Forces UDF, whose chances to make it to another four years of parliamentary representation are wearing thin.
The other thing which may be voiced with certainty is that neither of the two big parties in Bulgaria - the ruling GERB party and the Bulgarian Socialists Party (BSP), can rely on winning full majority in the next parliament. The two parties have no chances of winning 100 or more MPs in the 240-member parliament. This means that some kind of a coalition rule is expected but what it will be like will become clear after negotiations between the political parties after the general elections.
In my opinion, there are two important events which will have their effect on the outcome of the general elections in Bulgaria. In the first place, these are the elections in Italy in February where it is expected that the left-wing parties win the victory fir the first time in many years. The second important event will be the elections in Germany in May. The two elections will be interpreted as serious events and they will definitely have their effect on the motivation of the Bulgarian voters. We should be well aware that we are part of the European context and we know that we are not alone and few things depend only on us.